In the Q4 of 2025... what's going on?

Whoa, has the year gone by – and quickly it has. Other duties have very heavily steered me away from writing these blog posts. Yet again I find myself surprised by the fact that there are just too few hours in a day.

I took a look at the predictions I made for this year back when writing a blog post in January, and it seems that my crystal ball has been more correct this time than it was one year before. Granted, there is still some time to go until we are in 2026, and there is always a lot of stuff going on, so who knows what may still happen? In any case, it seems that the only thing I wasn't able to hit the nail on the head was the case of Ukraine.

The war not ending has been quite a disappointment. Surely, it must have been a yuge disappointment for Mr. Trump as well. After all, making either a lasting or a temporary peace has been one of his big goals and promises. Sadly, this seems to be one of those deals that will not be closed as easily as anticipated, even by the most skilled deal makers. The situation unfortunately seems shady enough that I would not dare to expect the war to end in the next year either, unless something surprising happened. Death of Vladimir Putin could be one of those potential instances.

On the other hand, when I look at the rest of the world around me, it all seems to be going exactly as I anticipated. The death of middle class, economic plight of the people, yet at the same time some great economic growth as well – all focused on American soil, obviously. Well, to be fair, I read that Milei's Argentina is not doing too bad either.

The interesting thing is that while capital markets around the western world are doing superb up to the point of big bubbles, even in the U.S., the average people, however, do not seem to do all that great financially. A significant number of Americans still cannot afford an emergency of 500-1000 dollars! The exact number of those Americans and the sums they actually can afford vary depending on the source, but roughly speaking, you could say that every other American has no emergency fund. And let us not even delve into the topic of retirement, which is completely unattainable for many at this point. Even though I am not sure if work is an option either, since joblessness numbers keep steadily rising? But those are both topics for another post. This was just supposed to be a quick look-see into the status of November 2025, in any case.

In January, I wrote that the air we breath just keep getting thicker and thicker. Oh my, can I still feel it...