May 24th, 2024

The next black swan

In my first book, there is a section dedicated to black swans. Looking back at the pages of time, it is vastly easier to spot and identify these events than to predict the ones that are still yet to come. Although I suppose anything can always be up for debate. Was Russia invading Ukraine in 2022 a black swan event? Although rare, could it have been that unpredictable, after all, with the war and tensions having been on ever since 2014? How about COVID-19? It is not like we have not seen worldwide pandemics occurring every now and then in the history of mankind, is it not?

Anyhow, the real question still remains: how can we foresee these massive events that are yet to come, and how could we as individuals prepare for them? Make no mistake that larger organizations such as governments and companies are taking preventive and mitigative measures to prepare for these events. Individuals attempting to take proactive action to survive and excel through various crises, however, is much more rare.

Amidst the rise of COVID-19, there was a handsome amount of potential wealth to be made in the stock market, and certain people took great advantage of this. In the case of a full blown-out war, there are usually no direct and easy chances for individuals to profit, but maybe the lesson to be learned there was that ever since 2014, certain people knew they should probably distance themselves from the conflict and both of it's parties in all possible ways.

But what comes next?

I won't dare to make straightforward predictions here, firstly since guessing is hard and I don't want to appear responsible in anyone's eyes should my guesses go wrong. Second, because there are automated bots scanning the Internet nowadays 24/7 for "disinformation" and "misinformation", and even discussing certain topics can flag your website as one spreading either of those. Coming to think of it, perhaps such a war between information, disinformation, and freedom of speech will be the next black swan event. Will it be a war in the physical or in cyber world, and how it will manifest itself are whole other questions.

Whether it is through a crystal ball, binoculars or a looking glass, it is always wise to look at the world around you and try to predict what tomorrow will bring. You literally will never know when you will be able to predict the upcoming jackpot.